Policy Modeling for Coronary Heart Disease. Abstract, Executive Summary and FinalReport

摘要

The Coronary Heart Diesease Policy Model is a computer-simulation model ofcoronary heart disease (CHD) in the U.S. population aged 35-84. The model is designed to forecast incidence, mortality, morbidity, and cost of CHD in the U.S. population under assumptions regarding real or hypothetical changes in risk factor distributions. It is also used to assess the cost-effectiveness of primary or secondary interventions designed prevent or treat CHD. The model consists of three submodels: the Demographic-Epidemiologic submodel (DE), for persons without CHD stratified by risk factors; the Bridge submodel, for persons within the first 30 days of a CHD event; and the Diesease History submodel (DH) for persons who have existing CHD. The model has been used to explain the reasons for historical changes in CHD mortality, evaluate the cost-effectiveness of blood pressure and cholesterol reduction; evaluate the costs and effectiveness of vitamin E treatment, aspirin therapy, smoking cessation programs, and hormone replacement therapy.