Methodology for Evaluating the Credibility and Reliability of Models forEnvironmental Impact Assessment

摘要

Model credibility and reliability are essential if long-term environmental impactassessments based on computer models are to be meaningful and if projects are not to compromise the health and economic well-being of present and future generations. The report provides a review of the literature, including the methodology put forward by the International Atomic Energy Agency and the recent scientific literautre in diverse fields such as economics, human behavior, engineering design and ecology, particularly the literature discussing methodologies for evaluating model credibility and reliability. This literature provides an excellent basis for the construction of a methodology to assess model reliability and credibility. The points suggested in this literature have been excerpted and cast into a set of questions for use in determining the reliability and credibility of assessment models in general, with particular emphasis on their application in nuclear fuel waste management.