Making Effective Fixed-Guideway Transit Investments: Indicators of Success: Volume 1 and 2. TCRP 167.

摘要

Fixed-guideway transit projects, such as urban rail and bus rapid transit (BRT) lines, are among the largest infrastructure investments that cities and metropolitan areas make. With capital costs ranging from tens of millions to several billion dollars, decisions on whether to build a fixed-guideway transit project, and what kind of project to build, are not taken lightly by local officials or their funding partners. Such decisions may follow many years of planning and analysis at the system, corridor, and project levels. It can cost millions of dollars just to develop and apply the analysis tools that are typically used to evaluate alternative projects. TCRP Project H-42, An Exploration of Fixed-Guideway Transit Criteria Revisited, was undertaken to develop a relatively sophisticated, data-driven, indicator-based method for predicting the potential success of a fixed-guideway transit project. The goal was to develop a method that would predict the likelihood of project success based on the conditions present in the corridor and the metropolitan area. The project was partly intended to define success measures. For this research, success measures were defined based on project ridership and the change in transit system usage, and a set of indicators was identified that are strongly related to these measures based on an intensive data collection and statistical analysis process.