Workshop on Development of the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model AccidentAnalysis Module

摘要

The Federal Highway Administration is developing an Interactive Highway SafetyDesign Model (IHSDM) to assist highway geometric design engineers in considering the safety consequences of their design decisions. One element of the IHSDM will be an accident analysis module. A workshop was held in June 1995 to evaluate two approaches to developing the accident analysis module: the statistical approach and the diagnostic approach. The workshop recommended that the accident analysis module include statistical models that provide both point and interval estimates of safety measures. Statistical techniques for model development could include linear regression; generalized linear models; Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis; Beyesian approximation; multivariate analysis; jackknifing, bootstrapping, and subsampling techniques; and nonparametric methods. It was recommended that formal statistical models be combined with an expert systems approach to identify potential safety problems associated with geometric design features. The workshop also recommended that a diagnostic approach to the development of the accident analysis module be pursued. The diagnostic approach would employ a combination of accident reconstruction from hard-copy police accident reports and on-scene accident investigation. A key element of the diagnostic approach would be identifying the sequence of events leading to particular accidents and the causal or contributing role of specific geometric features in that sequence of events. This report presents the workshop recommendations for both the statistical and diagnostic approaches to accident analysis.