Asian Financial Crisis: Effects on U.S. Agriculture

摘要

This paper analyzes the likely effect of the recent Asian financial crisis on the211u001eU.S. economy and agriculture. It uses a multi-country, multi-sector dynamic 211u001eintertemporal general equilibrium model, with endogenously modeled financial 211u001emarkets (G-cubed agriculture). Two simulations are done: one in which the crisis 211u001eis confined to Korea and Southeast Asia, where the problem was most acute as of 211u001ethe fall of 1998, and another in which the crisis is assumed to deepen in Japan, 211u001eChina, and Taiwan to the same extent as it already has in Korea and Southeast 211u001eAsia. The results show that the Asian financial crisis has a number of offsetting 211u001eeffects on U.S. agriculture. U.S. exports of agricultural and food products fall 211u001ein response to declining demand in the affected countries in Asia and the 211u001eappreciation of the U.S. dollar.