Model Validation and Reasonableness Checking Manual

摘要

A major shortcoming of many travel demand models is the lack of attention and211u001eeffort placed on the validation phase of model development. Validation involves 211u001etesting the model's predictive capabilities. Travel models need to be able to 211u001ereplicate observed conditions within reason before being used to produce future-211u001eyear forecasts. As metropolitan areas continue to refine and improve the travel 211u001edemand forecasting process, the credibility of the process with decision makers 211u001ewill depend largely on the ability of analysts to properly validate procedures 211u001eand models used.