Out-Migration, Population Decline, and Regional Economic Distress

摘要

EDA's objectives for this study were to (1) examine significant forms of distress211u001ethat accompany out-mitigated/population loss (OPL) in U.S. communities, (2) 211u001edetermine whether income and unemployment indicators fail to identify those types 211u001eof distress in some regions, and (3) recommend specific measures for capturing 211u001eOPL distress. EDA's action was motivated by a concern that some communities 211u001eexperiencing OPL have legitimate development assistance needs that are overlooked 211u001ewhen economic distress is evaluated using traditional measures. The report 211u001eoutlines three principal findings: First there is a fundamental difference 211u001ebetween (1) OPL and (2) unemployment and income in terms of their relationship to 211u001eeconomic well-being. Low income and high unemployment express a tangible form of 211u001edistress (idle workers or poverty), whereas OPL may reflect either positive or 211u001enegative economic outcomes. Second, there are two situations in which OPL can 211u001egenerate adverse economic outcomes that may not be reflected in income or 211u001eunemployment measures. In the first case, reduced employment opportunities can 211u001elead to long-term out-migration of young, skilled, and educated populations. In 211u001ethe second case, severe boom-bust cycles accompanied by very rapid population 211u001eadjustments can damage the fiscal position of local governments. Third, while it 211u001eis not possible to definitively identify regions adversely affected by OPL, there 211u001eis value in identifying regions that are potentially suffering from OPL dynamics.