Accident Risks of Car Drivers in Wintertime Traffic

摘要

;The wintertime accident risks of drivers and the factors affecting the risks211u001ewere analyzed using statistical accident models. The evaluation method was based 211u001eon reliability theory and on survival modeling. The data consisted of two parts: 211u001eresponses to a postal questionnaire, addressed to 10,000 vehicle owners, about 211u001edriving and accidents during wintertime in the years 1991-1993; and detailed 211u001erecords of fatal accidents, in the years 1987-1991, generated by in-depth 211u001eaccident investigation teams and compiled by the Motor Insurers' Road Safety 211u001eCommittee (VALT). Replies to the postal questionnaires were received from 5,881 211u001evehicle owners, giving a response rate of 59%. The replies included 296 self-211u001ereported accident involved drivers. The VALT data on fatal wintertime accidents 211u001econtained 658 drivers involved in fatal accidents. The analyses of the two data 211u001esources confirmed that driving conditions and kilometreage driven during the 211u001ewintertime contribute to amount of accidents. The best explaining variables in 211u001eboth survival and risk models of wintertime driving were driver characteristics 211u001e(age, driver behavior, kilometreage driven, speed, and use of safety-belt), 211u001edrivers' state (driving under the influence of alcohol) and vehicle 211u001echaracteristics (vehicle weight and condition of tyres).