Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands: Coordinated Federal Decisions and Additional Data Are Needed to Manage Potential Economic Impact of Applying U.S. Immigration Law

摘要

The potential impact of the legislations implementation on the CNMIs labor market, and therefore on its economy, will largely depend on decisions that the U.S. Departments of Homeland Security (DHS) and Labor (DOL) make in implementing the CNMI-only work permit program. DHS will decide on the number of permits to allocate each year, the distribution of the permits, their terms and conditions, and the permit fees; DOL will decide whether and when to extend the CNMI-only permit program past 2014. The interaction of the rate and timing with which DHS reduces the available number of permits and the timing of any DOL extensions of the program will significantly impact the availability of foreign workers; however, we reported in August 2008 that federal agencies had not yet identified an interagency process to coordinate these decisions. Although modest reductions in CNMI-only permits for foreign workers would cause minimal impact, any substantial and rapid decline in the availability of CNMI-only work permits would have a negative effect on the economy, given foreign workers prominence in key CNMI industries. However, because key federal sources of labor market data do not cover the CNMI, the agencies may have difficulty obtaining the data needed to make decisions. At the same time, the decline in the garment industry, challenges to the tourism industry, and the scheduled increases in the minimum wage may reduce demand for foreign workers, lessening any potential adverse impact of the legislation on the CNMIs economy.