Short Term Prediction of Ice Loads Experienced by Ice Going Ships

摘要

The objective of the project is to develop methods and software for short term monitoring and predicting of ice loads and implement these into an on board monitoring system. The system then provides real time information on ice loads and on ice damage risk to the crew. If the risk is too high, speed can be reduced or the route has changed. The estimation of damage risk is based on the probability of occurrence of high ice loads against the hull. As the objective is to avoid such loads, their probability should be derived from lower level loads that are observed during a short period. To attain this, the statistics of high loads must be related to the statistics of observed lower level loads. This constitutes the prediction problem. After an introductory part on ice load measurements and their use in navigation the present report contains the theoretical framework for the adopted prediction procedure. It is based on the scaling properties of the observed ice load time series.