Risk Perception and Risk Tolerance in Aircraft Pilots.

摘要

Poor pilot decision-making has been identified as a factor in a large percentage of fatal aviation accidents. Risk perception and risk tolerance are two factors that can significantly impact pilot decision-making. Inaccurate risk perception can lead pilots to ignore or misinterpret external cues that demand immediate and effective decisions to avoid hazards. High risk tolerance can lead pilots to choose courses of action that unnecessarily expose them to hazards and increased likelihood of accident. Risk perception and risk tolerance are related and often confounded constructs. This study sought to separate these two constructs and to develop and evaluate measures that could be used to compare individual pilots on the constructs. A large sample of pilots visiting a government web site completed two risk perception, and three risk tolerance measures. They also completed a short scale assessing their involvement in hazardous aviation events and provided demographic information. Analysis of the data showed that the five new measures demonstrated acceptable internal consistency. The measures of risk perception were only mildly related to risk tolerance, suggesting that these are separate constructs. As hypothesized, pilot perception of risk was negatively related to risk tolerance. In addition, risk perception demonstrated a small, but significant, correlation with self-reported involvement in hazardous aviation events. However, contrary to expectations, risk tolerance was not significantly related to hazardous events. The results suggest that it is differences in cognitive skills required for accurate risk perception that place pilots are greater likelihood of accident involvement, rather than differences in underlying personality traits related to risk tolerance. The implications of the findings are discussed, along with limitations on the generalizability of the results, and suggestions for future research to improve the measurement scales are given.