Aviation Demand Forecasting: A Survey of Methodologies, August 2002.

摘要

Air passenger demand is related to such factors as the number of persons in a region and their motivation to travel (propensity to travel), socioeconomic activities and measures that support travel, and the availability of service and infrastructure. Forecasting at the local level should ideally take all of these influences into consideration. A major assumption underlying most forecasts is that there exists a correlation between demand and generating factors derived on the basis of historical data, and that this correlation is (to varying degrees) applicable for the forecasting horizon. Numerous assumptions related to expected future environments are made and used as input to the forecasting process. These assumptions are most likely to be a set of other forecasts derived independently, (e.g., future fare level, future service, future gross national product, and the like). It is the logic used and methodology applied to predict the relationship between the factors that creates variations among demand forecasts. For major airports, the relation between connecting (transfer) passengers and local origination or destination (O-D) traffic needs to be specified.