Substance Use by Older Adults: Estimates of Future Impact on the Treatment System

摘要

This report provides evidence concerning the projected demand for substance abuse treatment services for older Americans over the next 20 to 30 years and suggests approaches for refining these projections. It was developed in response to two trends in the United States-the aging of the population and the higher consumption of alcohol and illicit substances by people born between 1946 and 1964 (the baby boom generation) than was true in earlier cohorts. A work group of Federal agency representatives and university researchers was established by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), Office of Applied Studies (OAS), to examine and assess the ability of available data to provide sufficient information to guide planning to address the possible doubling of the number of those older adults requiring substance abuse treatment services. The work group identified and reviewed available information, gaps in data, assumptions concerning data collection and analysis, important variables, and estimation methods and models. This report includes original analyses of a wide variety of data sources undertaken by an invited panel of experts. It was prepared to demonstrate approaches to the issues raised and the suggestions of the Federal work group.