Road Ahead: Lessons in Nation Building from Japan, Germany, and Afghanistan for Postwar Iraq.

摘要

Military planners have demonstrated that rapid deployment of special operations personnel and judicious use of traditional military assets designed to contend with every reasonable contingency are appropriate for modern wars with countries such as Iraq. A similar doctrine is also appropriate in the wake of such wars, especially during the critical eighteen-month window that begins with the first day of the peace, when postwar environments are most vulnerable to instability and a relapse into violence. In Iraq, well-planned, flexible, and effective postwar initiatives will stabilize the country, empower Iraqi moderates, and help the United States to contain tensions and influence political developments in the region and around the world. Conversely, half measures and limited endurance may lead to the collapse of the Iraqi state, the eventual rise of another despot, or crippling economic uncertainty with global implications. The stakes are extraordinarily high in the Middle East as Washington seeks to use unprecedented U.S. power to redefine the organizing principles of international order. The complexity of simultaneously managing threats to security, political and economic postwar transitions, humanitarian crises, and daunting reconstruction tasks among traumatized and exhausted populations is consistently underestimated. Current planning, taking into account the discrepancies between State Department and Pentagon time lines, foresees a six- to twelve-month military occupation as necessary to restore order, contain humanitarian crises, rebuild the economy, and create conditions necessary for democracy in Iraq. The lessons of history, from the post-World War II military occupations of Japan and Germany to the current engagement in Afghanistan, suggest this is overly optimistic. Self-sustaining peace and stability are still years away in Afghanistan. The German and Japanese occupations were thought necessary for several months at most. Each lasted seven years. The post-World War II military occupations and the continuing intervention in Afghanistan illustrate particularly relevant lessons for consolidation of the peace in Iraq.