Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System, February 2003

摘要

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a comprehensive mid-term energy forecasting and policy analysis tool used by EIA. NEMS projects energy supply, demand, prices, and environmental emissions, by region, given assumptions about the state of the economy, international markets, and energy policies. The Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) links NEMS to the rest of the economy by providing projections of economic driver variables for use by the supply, demand, and conversion modules of NEMS. The derivation of the baseline macroeconomic forecast lays a foundation for the determination of the energy demand and supply forecast. MAM is used to present alternative macroeconomic growth cases to provide a range of uncertainty about the growth potential for the economy and its like consequences for the energy system. MAM is also able to address the macroeconomic impacts associated with changing energy market conditions, such as alternative world oil price assumptions.