Analyses of Selected Provisions of Proposed Energy Legislation: 2003

摘要

This report was prepared at the request of Senator Byron L. Dorgan, a member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, to support the deliberations of the Senate and House energy bill conferees on H.R.6.EAS and H.R.6.EH. Senator Dorgan requested the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to perform a quantitative analysis of the energy savings and import reductions that would result from the Senate and House energy bills. In order to provide this report in time for the conference committee review, EIA could not provide a complete analysis of all of the various provisions in each bill. This report primarily summarizes the findings in previous EIA analyses of earlier legislation with similar provisions. The lack of analysis on some provisions should not be interpreted as reflecting any EIA judgment regarding their relative importance or potential impact. The earlier analyses discussed in this report were completed in 2002 and 2003, and some are based on energy market data from late 2001. Consequently, the analyses presented here are indicative of the direction and magnitude of the impacts of the proposed legislation, but they do not necessarily reflect the impacts that would result from new analyses of current legislative provisions based on the most recent available data and new long-run projections that are now being developed for release in November. For example, natural gas markets have recently faced concerns regarding the adequacy of natural gas supplies to the lower-48 market, with record low levels of working gas in storage at the end of the 2002-2003 winter season, and wellhead prices that, while declining, remain far above those typical of experience over the past decade. If these trends continue and change the longer-term view of natural gas prices, some of the effects of the proposed bills could be quite different than those presented here.