Fiscal System Analysis: Concessionary and Contractual Systems Used in Offshore Petroleum Arrangements

摘要

The manner in which the fiscal terms and parameters of a contract impact system measures are complicated and not well understood, and so the purpose of this report is to quantify the influence of private and market uncertainty on concessionary and contractual fiscal systems. An analytic framework is developed that couples a cash flow simulation model with regression analysis to construct numerical functionals associated with the fiscal regime. A meta-modeling approach is used to derive relationships that specify how the present value, rate of return, and take statistic vary as a function of the system parameters. The critical assumptions involved in estimation, the uncertainty associated with interpretation, and the limitations of the statistics are also examined.