Analysis of Restricted Natural Gas Supply Cases

摘要

This analysis of four scenarios that restrict future natural gas supply responds to a request by Representative Barbara Cubin, Chairman of the Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources of the U.S. House Committee on Resources, on February 3, 2004. The four restricted natural gas supply cases are compared to the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 (AEO2004)1 reference case to determine the impact of these supply restrictions on natural gas production, consumption, imports, and prices. The four restricted supply cases are defined as follows: (1) the no Alaska gas pipeline case; (2) the limited new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal capacity case; (3) the lower ultimate unconventional gas recovery (UGR) per well case;and (4) the combined case, which incorporates the assumptions of the three other cases.