Calibration and Verification of a Two-Dimensional, Laterally Averaged Mechanistic Model of the Neuse River Estuary

摘要

A modified version of an existing two-dimensional, laterally averaged model (CE-QUAL-W2) was applied to predict water quality conditions in the lower 80-km of the Neuse River Estuary. Model input data sets and observed data sets used for calibration and verification were developed using observed data gathered from various agencies. The period June 1, 1997 to December 31, 1999 was found to have sufficient data to create the necessary model data set for calibration, and year 2000 data were used to verify the parameters established during calibration. The level of calibration achieved in this project was comparable to levels attained in a her eutrophication model studies of eastern U.S. estuaries. Model performance during verification was comparable to the performance seen during calibration. The model's salinity prediction capabilities were somewhat better in the validation, however, dissolved oxygen performance in the validation year was slightly poorer compared to model performance obtained with 1997 to 1999 predictions. Nutrient and chlorophyll-a performance were virtually the same between the calibration and validation exercises. Based on the results of the study, it can be concluded that a mechanistic eutrophication model is capable of simulating chlorophyll-a, nutrient, and dissolved oxygen dynamics in the Neuse River Estuary.