Robust Spatial Analysis of Rare Crimes: Final Report.

摘要

The main goal of this project was to develop an analytical approach that will allow researchers to incorporate spatial error structures in models of rare crimes. In order to examine the causes of violence, researchers are frequently confronted with the need to apply spatial econometric methods to models with discrete outcomes. Appropriate methods for doing so when the outcomes are measured at intracity areal units are lacking. The aim of this research was to fill that gap. This research effort developed and applied the framework to a real world empirical problem. It examined the socioeconomic and demographic determinants of disaggregate homicide rates at two different intracity levels of areal aggregation and compared inferences derived from several sets of models. The analysis was conducted on disaggregated homicide counts (1989-91) recorded in Chicagos census tracts and neighborhood clusters using explanatory factors obtained from census sources.