Methodology for Assessing the Vulnerability of Marine Fish and Shellfish Species to a Changing Climate.

摘要

Climate change is already affecting fishery resources and the communities that depend on them. Climate change and multidecadal variability have been implicated in the shifting distributions, abundances, and phenology of fish and shellfish species in many marine ecosystems. These impacts are expected to intensify in the future, increasing the need to understand which species may be most vulnerable to climate-related environmental change. We have developed a vulnerability assessment that uses expert elicitation methods to quantify a species’ exposure and sensitivity to expected climate change. Vulnerability, as used here, refers to a reduction in a species’ productivity and or abundance associated with a changing climate, and includes both climate change and multidecadal climate variability. This methodology uses a vulnerability assessment framework, which is applicable across multiple species and provides a relative rank of vulnerability to climate change and variability.as well as information about why a species may or may not be vulnerable. The results can help fishery managers and researchers identify highly vulnerable species and more effectively target research and assessment resources on species of highest concern.