Modeling to Support the Development of Habitat Targets for Piping Plovers on the Missouri River.

摘要

This report describes analyses done in support of the establishment of quantitative targets for piping plovers on the Missouri River using predictive numerical models for emergent sandbar habitat and piping plovers developed for the Missouri River Effects Analysis. Several approaches were considered and modeled: current operations of the reservoirs to serve as a reference (Existing Conditions), an unregulated hydrograph to simulate historical conditions (Unregulated), a scenario where dams were present but not operated (No-Operations), and a scenario where the amount of habitat necessary to provide a desired level of population viability (5% risk of extinction in 50 years) was constructed (Calibrated Target). These scenarios were compared in terms of the distribution of standardized habitat produced, the proportion of time available habitat exceeded a given acreage, and the risk of quasi-extinction for plover populations. Sensitivity analyses were also conducted to demonstrate the effects of initial population size and target habitat acreage on extinction risk and the effects of viability criteria on habitat targets. Limitations and uncertainties in the modeling, including caveats on the use of these models to estimate historical conditions and the availability of information to build a metapopulation model are discussed. The challenges inherent in setting population targets and a possible alternative approach to assessing management alternatives in terms of population effects are also included.