Rice Outlook: U.S. 2006/07 Rough Rice Crop Forecast Lowered To 192.3 Million Cwt

摘要

Both the U.S. total supply and total use forecasts for 2006/07 were reduced slightly this month. On the supply side, the rough rice crop was lowered 1 million hundredweight (cwt) to 192.3 million based on a weaker yield. Both the long and combined medium/short grain crop forecasts were lowered. Imports were raised 0.5 million cwt to a record 18 million. Beginning stocks remain estimated at 43.0 million cwt, the largest since 1987/88. These revisions resulted in a fractional reduction in total supplies to 253.3 million cwt, down 9 percent from a year earlier. On the use side, total domestic and residual use was lowered 2 percent to 122.8 million cwt, still the highest on record. Exports remain projected at 97 million (rough equivalent of fully milled, brown, and rough rice), 16 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 2001/02. On balance, these revisions resulted in a 1-percent reduction in total use to 219.8 million cwt.