Methodology for Variance of Change Estimates For State-Level 1999 and 2000 Poverty Rates for Children Under 18.

摘要

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) asked the U.S. Census Bureau's Small Area Estimates Branch to provide them with model-based estimates of child poverty on an annual basis to assist in determining which states had a greater than 5 percent poverty rate increase between two consecutive income years. This document addresses the change between income years 1999 and 2000. This document discusses the derivation of the estimates and test statistics provided to HHS. The results of the hypothesis tests performed are presented in Section 2. A complete listing of these results can be found in Table 1 and Table 2 located at the end of the document. In Section 3 the authors discussed the mathematical details of the change variance estimation and 1.05 change variance estimation. The authors outline specific details about estimation of parameters needed to produce these variance estimates in Section 4.