Petrodollars and Global Imbalances. Occasional Paper No. 1.

摘要

In December 1998, the price of high-quality crude oil briefly fell below $11 a barrel as financial crises in Asia, Russia, and Brazil dampened demand. Adjusted for inflation, the price was the lowest since 1973. As the world economy recovered and grew, the price of oil rose markedly, peaking at almost $70 per barrel in 2005 before ending the year at $61 per barrel. Today, the price continues to hover at around $65. This sustained rise in prices has generated hundreds of billions of dollars of extra revenue for oil exporting countries (e.g. the Bank of International Settlements estimates $1.3 trillion to OPEC since end-1998). This Occasional Paper examines the major sources and uses of this windfall and its impact on global imbalances.