Analysis of Model Day 5 Max Temperature Forecasts for the WFO San Joaquin Valley County Warning Area

摘要

It has been generally accepted that the use of Bias Corrected gridded forecast output has been beneficial during the forecast process. This output is viewable through the Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) and used to display and edit gridded forecasts. This paper will take a look at how the bias corrected (BC) gridded output performed during the winter months of December 2007 through February 2008, over the San Joaquin Valley CA WFO county warning area (CWA) (shown at the right). The analysis will include a verification of forecasts from model output and in particular, maximum temperature (MaxT) forecasts on day five. Model output for this study included the raw GFS run compared with derived gridded output, which includes adjustments to the base GFS run. These adjusted grids utilize statistical guidance which is used to reanalyze the forecast fields for elements such as temperature, dew point and winds.