2010 Census: Census Bureau Needs Procedures for Estimating the Response Rate and Selecting for Testing Methods to Increase Response Rate

摘要

The U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) estimates that it will spend at least $2 billion to enumerate households that did not return census forms during the 2010 Census. Increasing the response rate would reduce the number of households that Bureau field staff must visit. To address concerns about reducing the cost of enumerating these households, GAO (1) analyzed how the Bureau develops, supports, and updates the response rate estimate, and the extent to which the Bureau uses the estimate to inform its 2010 planning efforts; (2) described the methods the Bureau considered for increasing response in 2010 and how it tested these methods; and (3) assessed how the Bureau identifies and selects for testing methods to increase response rate, including considering other surveys' methods. To meet these objectives, GAO analyzed the Bureau's documentation for estimating the response rate and selecting for testing methods to increase response, and interviewed experts from other survey organizations. The 2010 Census response rate estimate is not fully supported, systematically reevaluated, or clearly incorporated into the life cycle cost estimate and planning efforts for nonresponse follow-up--where census workers visit households that do not return their census forms. Specifically, the Bureau could not demonstrate support for one component underpinning the estimate--a general decline due to decreasing public participation in surveys--because it did not document its decisions or data sources when developing the estimate. The two other estimate components that affect responses are the short-form-only census and the replacement questionnaire.