Climate Projections Based on Emissions Scenarios for Long-Lived and Short-Lived Radiatively Active Gases and Aerosols: Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.2

摘要

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) was established in 2002 to coordinate climate and global change research conducted in the United States. Building upon and incorporating the U.S. Global Change Research Program of the previous decade, the program integrates federal research on climate and global change, as sponsored by 13 federal agencies and overseen by the Office of Science and Technology Policy, the Council on Environmental Quality, the National Economic Council, and the Office of Management and Budget. A primary objective of the U. S. CCSP is to provide the best possible scientific information to support public discussion and government and private sector decision making on key climaterelated issues. To help meet this objective, the CCSP has identified an initial set of 21 synthesis and assessment products that address its highest priority research, observation, and decisionsupport needs. The CCSP is conducting 21 such activities, covering topics such as the North American carbon budget and implications for the global carbon cycle, coastal elevation and sensitivity to sealevel rise, trends in emissions of ozone-depleting substances and ozone recovery and implications for ultraviolet radiation exposure, and use of observational and model data in decision support and decision making. The stated purpose for this report, Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 3.2, is to provide information to those who use climate model outputs to assess the potential effects of human activities on climate, air quality, and ecosystem behavior. In an examination of the U.S. CCSP Strategic Plan, the National Research Council (NRC) recommended that synthesis and assessment products should be produced, with independent oversight and review from the wider scientific and stakeholder communities. To meet this goal, NOAA requested an independent review of SAP 3.2 by the NRC. The NRC appointed an ad hoc committee composed of eight members who provided their review findings, and recommendations, suggestions, and options for the authors to consider in revising the first draft of SAP 3.2. The revised second draft was then posted for public comment for 45 days. This third draft is in response to those public comments.