Uses and Limitations of Observations, Data, Forecasts, and Other Projections in Decision Support for Selected Sectors and Regions. Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.1

摘要

This Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP), Uses and Limitations of Observations, Data, Forecasts, and Other Projections in Decision Support for Selected Sectors and Regions (SAP 5.1), examines the current and prospective contribution of Earth science information/data in decision-support activities and their relationship to climate change science. The SAP contains a characterization and catalog of observational capabilities in an illustrative set of decision-support activities. It also contains a description of the challenges and promises of these capabilities and discusses the interaction between users and producers of information, including the role, measurement, and communication of uncertainty and confidence levels associated with decision-support outcomes and their related climate implications. The organizing basis for the chapters in this SAP is the decision-support tools (DST), which are typically computerbased models assessing such phenomena as resource supply, the status of real-time events (e.g., forest fires and flooding), or relationships among environmental conditions and other scientific metrics (for instance, water-borne disease vectors and epidemiological data). These tools use data, concepts of relations among data, and analysis functions to allow analysts to build relationships (including spatial, temporal, and process-based) among different types of data, merge layers of data, generate model outcomes, and make predictions or forecasts. DSTs are an element of the broader decision-making contextthe Decision-Support System (DSS). DSSs include not just computer tools but also the institutional, managerial, financial, and other constraints involved in decision making.