Miljo och Sakerheti i det langre perspektivet - nya krav pa Forsvarsmakten (Environment and Security in Future Conflicts - New Requirements on Defence)

摘要

The report provides an overview of new challenges to the Swedish Armed Forces related to international missions. The focus is on conflicts where environmental and resource problems are an essential feature. Preliminary answers are given to the following questions: (1) What environmental security problems could appear in future conflicts that transcends Swedish experiences up till now; (2) What new requirements in terms of e.g. tasks, abilities or ways of operation do these new features put on the Swedish Armed Forces. In the long run climatic and environmental changes are expected to seriously impair living conditions in many already poor parts of the world. This will happen because of draughts, floods and extreme weather conditions etc. There is a considerable risk of second order effects such as large migration problems, intensified competition for scarce natural resources and weakening of some societies' already low capability to cope with conflicts and crises. When Swedish military units take part in future international missions they may face new or increased difficulties and demands. Examples given in the report are (1) more extreme climatic or environmental conditions; (2) a mission in a megacity with a defective transport system and poor supply and sanitary conditions; (3) an extreme political disintegration; (4) cooperation with e.g., Russian or Chinese military units; (5) a complex multifunctional mission that asks for an extended civil-military cooperation. Furthermore, the latent conflict in some parts of the Arctic area over the rights to exploit resources may be brought to the fore by the melting ice.