Evaluations of Economic Impacts of NAFTA on the Transportation System/Sector of Selected Southern States

摘要

This paper examines industry-level growth since the implementation of NAFTA. Using a rich dataset on traffic between NAFTA members, we estimate several gravity models to assess trade between NAFTA members at the industry level. The results show significant disparities across states and industries. For exports within the NAFTA region, the results show large differences in growth rates both between industries. For imports within the NAFTA region, the growth rates vary more between industries than between states. Among the five MidSouth states, we examine, the data reveals substantial variation both within states at the industry level, and within industries across states. Once the fundamental determinants of trade are considered, the growth of industry-level trade between Texas and the NAFTA partners has been weaker than in other states.