Impact of Lane Closure on Roadway Capacity. Part C: Modeling Propensity at Work Zones

摘要

Chapter 10 of the FDOT Plans Preparation Manual titled 'Work Zone Traffic Control' contains a lane closure analysis procedure, in which a 'Remaining Traffic Factor' (RTF) is used to account for possible traffic diversion during a lane closure. However, no guidance has been offered on how to obtain the value of the RTF. The purposes of the study are twofold. First, diversion behaviors at work zones were modeled in a discrete choice modeling framework. The authors conducted a stated preference survey to collect data on drivers' diversion propensity and then calibrated a binary logit model. The model provides a better understanding of drivers' diversion behaviors at work zones, and can be used to forecast diversion rates in a work zone traffic analysis. Second, they proposed two procedures, namely open-loop and closed-loop, to apply the calibrated binary logit model to computer the RTF. An Excel tool was developed to facilitate the computation.