Impact of High Oil Prices on Freight Transportation: Modal Shift Potential in Five Corridors. Technical Report

摘要

In recent months the price of oil has risen sharply and with it, gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil prices. The impact of these oil price increases is very strong as it flows through the U.S. economy. Firstly, its impact on production costs results in a reduction on the overall demand for goods and services in the economy. Second, its impact on transport costs is changing distribution systems and the ability of existing logistics chains to serve world markets. This second impact affects not only the hinterland and distribution systems of major markets, but also the relative competitiveness of the modes that serve those markets. In order to understand the impact of oil prices on markets and their logistic chains, the Maritime Administration (an agency of the U.S. Department of Transportation) asked Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc. (TEMS) to evaluate the impact of oil prices on U.S. domestic freight transportation. The study first forecasts the potential range of oil prices in the short and long term, and then assesses how such prices would impact transportation logistics chains and evaluate likely changes. The analysis considers both the national impact as well as the impact in five critical corridor markets. These five corridors include over 95 percent of the US population and an even higher share of its total production and consumption.