U.S. Biobased Products: Market Potential and Projections Through 2025

摘要

This study is based upon data and assumptions as of 2006 which are not reflective of recent market developments. These assumptions were used to identify the market potential for biobased products--their production volumes and applications--through the year 2025. Market penetration was assessed based on information available through April 2006 and benchmark assumptions with respect to factors such as policy, biobased feedstock prices, and energy prices. Recent results of the benchmark assumptions have not materialized; corn prices have increased, the market prices for biofuels are lower, and the infrastructure costs continue to increase. If such trends that lead to low profit margins continue there will be a slowing effect on the biofuels industry. With the dynamic nature of the biobased industry affecting short term developments, the long term trends toward 2025 could vary widely based upon future policy, research, and market developments. Development of the biobased products industry can be expected to spur increased investment in processing and manufacturing facilities in rural America. This investment will both expand employment opportunities for rural residents and spur demand for farm products. Substantial growth is to be expected, especially in a high-priced oil and natural gas environment.