Impact of China's Agriculture Policies on Domestic and World Commodity Markets

摘要

China's agricultural and trade policies have been shifting despite little change in policy objectives. This paper investigates potential implications of recent agriculture policies applied in China, and quantitatively analyzes their impacts on domestic and international commodity markets. Results from a 42 country partial equilibrium dynamic agricultural simulation model indicate that the effects on international markets are likely to be small with world price impacts of less than one percent. The set of policies partially offset each other in the international market. Results indicate increased returns to farmers and lowering domestic prices to consumers. China's producers increase production slightly because of increased input subsidies. Exports are reduced because of applied export tax and decrease in value added tax rebate. Domestic consumer prices would likely decrease by 2 to 4.5 percent in real terms. The lower prices benefits lower income and rural households, and benefit expanding beef, pork, and poultry production in China.