Tradecraft Primer: Strucured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis

摘要

;Contents: Introduction; How To Use These Techniques; Diagnostic Techniques (Key Assumptions Check, Quality of Information Check, Indicators or Signposts of Change, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)); Contrarian Techniques (Devil's Advocacy, Team A/Team B, High-Impact/Low-Probability Analysis, 'What If' Analysis); Imaginative Thinking Techniques (Brainstorming, Outside-In Thinking, Red Team Analysis, Alternative Futures Analysis); Strategies for Using Structured Analytic Techniques; Selective Bibliography.