Brazil’s Corn Industry and the Effect on the Seasonal Pattern of U.S. Corn Exports.

摘要

The extraordinary increase in Brazil’s corn production over the past decade— driven by rising global demand and the combined influence of changes in price, technology, crop management practices, and area harvested—has made the country the third largest global corn producer and the second largest corn exporter. Brazil has emerged as the largest U.S. competitor in the global corn market with second-crop corn, harvested late in the local marketing year, boosting exports from September to January, months traditionally dominated by Northern Hemisphere exporters. Continued competition from Brazilian corn might permanently alter the seasonal pattern of U.S. corn exports, highlighting the need to reassess export forecasting methods. A change in export seasonality could alter the seasonality of U.S. corn prices, further weakening corn prices at harvest and eroding U.S. export market share.