Economic Analysis: Risk to U.S. Apple, Grape, Orange and Pear Production from the Light Brown Apple Moth, Epiphyas postvittana (Walker)

摘要

The team conducted this economic analysis at the request of USDA-APHIS-PPQ-EDP. Our objective was to quantitatively characterize the economic costs to apple, grape, orange and pear crops that would result from the introduction of the light brown apple moth (LBAM), Epiphyas postvittana, into the conterminous United States. This information can be used to inform regulatory policy and funding decisions regarding LBAM. Our economic analysis had two components: 1) a geospatial analysis that identified areas at risk for LBAM establishment based on climate and hosts and 2) a quantitative analysis, using a probabilistic modeling approach, which estimated the economic losses LBAM could cause if introduced into these areas due to damage, control, quarantines and research. Economic effects outside of the agricultural crop (apple, grape, orange and pear) production sector, e.g. trade effects, are beyond the scope of this analysis and are not provided.