Mobile Broadband: The Benefits of Additional Spectrum

摘要

The National Broadband Plan recommended that the Commission make available 500 megahertz (MHz) of new spectrum for wireless broadband, including 300 MHz for mobile flexible use within five years. In addition, the President directed in a June 28, 2010, Executive Memorandum that 500 MHz of new spectrum for mobile and fixed broadband use. This paper provides additional technical analysis to validate the need for additional mobile broadband spectrum in the near-term, and estimates the value created by making new spectrum available. Given the inherent uncertainty of any forecast of the future, the goal of this analysis is not to reach definitive numeric findings of spectrum need and economic benefit, but to make a reasonable demonstration that mobile data demand is likely to exceed capacity under current spectrum availability in the near-term, and that meeting this demand by making additional spectrum available is likely to create significant economic value. Our analysis suggests that the broadband spectrum deficit is likely to approach 300 MHz by 2014, that making available additional spectrum for mobile broadband would create value in excess of $100B in the next five years through avoidance of unnecessary costs. This estimate of value creation is narrow, as it does not account for the broader social value created through mobile broadband, which some economists estimate as multiples of the private value. Since making new spectrum available has historically taken between six and thirteen years, and since mobile data growth trends are expected to continue beyond the near-term forecast in this paper, these results support the need for timely action to free spectrum for mobile broadband, consistent with the recommendations of the National Broadband Plan and the Presidentfs directive.