Development of the Transportation Revenue Estimator and Needs Determination System (Trends) Forecasting Model: MPO Sub-Models and Maintenance

摘要

This report summarizes the technical work performed developing and incorporating Metropolitan Planning Organization sub-models into the existing Texas Revenue Estimator and Needs Determination System (TRENDS) model. Additionally, this report explains the maintenance and monthly updates performed on the TRENDS model. The TRENDS model is designed to provide transportation planners, policy makers, and the public with a tool to forecast revenues and expenses for the Texas Department of Transportation for the period 2010 through 2035 based on a user-defined level of transportation investment. The user, through interactive windows, can control a number of variables related to assumptions regarding statewide transportation needs, population growth rates, fuel efficiency, federal reimbursement rates, inflation rates, taxes, fees, and other elements. The output is a set of tables and graphs showing a forecast of revenues, e xpenditures, and fund balances for each year of the analysis period based on the user-defined assumptions.