Why Have Food Commodity Prices Risen Again

摘要

Between early June 2010 and February 2011, prices of food commodities increased sharply, surpassing the 2008 peaks that had spread anxiety among policymakers and lowincome consumers around the world. Most of the long-term trends in agricultural production and consumption that contributed to the 2002-06 price increases and the 2007-08 price spike also contributed to the recent price surge, including global growth in population and per capita incomes, increasing world per capita consumption of animal products, rising energy prices and growing global biofuel production, depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and slower growth in agricultural productivity. The price spikes in both periods also refl ect short-term shocks from weather-related production shortfalls, a corresponding decline in world stocks of grains and oilseeds, and changes in trade policies and practices in some countries. Renewed economic growth and demand in low- and middle-income countries following the 2009 recession also played a role in recent price increases. While many of the factors that contributed to price increases in 2002-08 and 2010-11 are the same, the timing, sequence, and relative importance of these factors varied.