Evaluation of the Use of Hindcast Model Data for OSRA in a Period of Rapidly Changing Conditions

摘要

The objective of this task (Task 5 of BOEMRE Contract M10PC00082) was to develop a report that: (1) summarizes the 3 day workshop conducted from March 29-31, 2011 in McLean, Virginia, and (2) provides scientific recommendations and alternatives that BOEMRE can use as guidance for evaluating hindcast and/or forecast data in Arctic Ocean oil spill trajectory analyses. This report constitutes Deliverable 7 of Contract M10PC00082. The workshop and report were completed in partial fulfillment of the overall goal to develop scientific recommendations that BOEMRE can use as guidance to prepare projects in its study planning process. The workshop objectives to reach this goal were: (1) Review the current status of oceanographic knowledge in the Arctic, including existing research in Arctic Ocean modeling and the quality of available forcing data; (2) Describe the attributes of hindcast data currently used for Oil Spill Risk Analysis (OSRA) and the skill assessment against observations used to evaluate the surface currents in the region; (3) Describe the effects of climate change on sea ice, circulation, river discharge, etc. in the Arctic Ocean and the impacts of these changes on surface circulation; and (4) Evaluate alternate approaches such as the incorporation of forecast modeling results in the OSRA process.