Bayesian Network Methodology for Infrastructure Seismic Risk Assessment and Decision Support

摘要

A Bayesian Network (BN) methodology is developed for performing infrastructure seismic risk assessment and providing decision support with an emphasis on immediate post-earthquake applications. A BN is a probabilistic graphical model that represents a set of random variables and their probabilistic dependencies. The variables may represent demand or capacity values, or the states of components and systems. Decision and utility nodes may be added that encode various decision alternatives and associated costs, thus facilitating support for decision-making under uncertainty.