Market Assessment of Refinery Outages Planned for March 2011 through June 2011

摘要

Section 804 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (Pub. L. 110-140) requires the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to review and analyze planned refinery outages not less frequently than twice each year. This report reviews the implications on supplies of gasoline and middle distillate fuel (diesel, jet fuel, and heating oil) from refinery outages planned for March through June 2011, which covers the seasonal increase in summer driving. Refinery outages are the result of both planned maintenance and unplanned unit shutdowns. Maintenance is usually scheduled during the times when consumption is lowest, i.e., in the first quarter and again in the fall. Unplanned outages can occur at any time and for any reason such as mechanical failure, fire, or flood. EIAs analysis of current data for planned refinery outages, combined with the typical level of unplanned outages, indicates that available refinery capacity during the period from March through June 2011 is adequate to meet forecasts of U.S. gasoline and middle distillate consumption based on EIAs February 2011 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). However, Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 5 (see Appendix B) may experience tight markets and temporary price pressures in April or May.