Estimation of Baseline Daily Mean Streamflows for Ungaged Locations on Pennsylvania Streams, Water Years 1960-2008.

摘要

Statistics and analyze streamflow conditions. An in-depth evaluation of flow regimes to promote instream ecological health often requires streamflow information obtainable only from a time series hydrograph. Historically, it has been difficult to estimate daily mean streamflow for an ungaged location. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, Susquehanna River Basin Commission, and The Nature Conservancy, has developed the Baseline Streamflow Estimator (BaSE) to estimate baseline streamflow at a daily time scale for ungaged streams in Pennsylvania using data collected during water years 1960-2008. Baseline streamflow is minimally altered by regulation, diversion, or mining, and other anthropogenic activities. Daily mean streamflow is estimated in BaSE using a methodology that equates streamflow as a percentile from a flow duration curve for a particular day at an ungaged location with streamflow as a percentile from the flow duration curve for the same day at a reference streamgage that is considered to be hydrologically similar to the ungaged location. An appropriate reference streamgage is selected using map correlation, in which variogram models are developed that correlate streamflow at one streamgage with streamflows at all other streamgages. The percentiles from a flow duration curve for the ungaged location are converted to streamflow through the use of regression equations. Regression equations used to predict 17 flow-duration exceedance probabilities were developed for Pennsylvania using geographic information system-derived basin characteristics. The standard error of prediction for the regression equations ranged from 11 percent to 92 percent with the mean of 31 percent.