Results of a Series of Dynamical Predictions for the Arctic:Wnter Season

摘要

Results of a series of 24-hour forecasts of 1000-mb height, 500-mb height, and 1000-500 mb thickness for the area north of 60 degrees are presented for a twenty-day period in December 1956 and January 1957. The forecasts are based on graphical integrations of a two-level baroclinic model and both an approximate and exact method have been used to convert vorticity changes to height changes. The verifications include both types of forecasts.nThe map analyses used in making the forecasts were specially prepared for the purpose and are believed to be more accurate than routine maps for the region. This fact must be kept in mind in interpreting the results of the verification.