Objective Numerical Prediction out to Six Days Using the Primitive Equation Model -a Test Case

摘要

The report is a brief summary of the results of a test case study using the primitive equations to make numerical predictions out to six days after the initial time. Daily and selected 5-day mean charts of 500-, 700-, and 1000-mb. height and 1000 to 500- and 1000 to 700-mb. thickness, along with their departures from normal, were produced directly from the model. For comparison, the barotropic 500-mb. forecast heights were also obtained, and both primitive and barotropic forecasts were compared with the observed heights and thicknesses. Although the 500-mb. forecasts made from the primitive equation model were not noticeably better or worse than the barotropic forecasts on the average over the hemisphere, the 1000-mb. and thickness forecasts were of useful quality even at the 6th day in the test case. The 5-day mean forecast patterns of height and thickness correctly indicated a temperature reversal over the United States and are thus expected to be useful tools in the preparation of the Weather Bureau's 5-day mean extended forecasts. (Author)