Man-Machine Mix in Applied Weather Forecasting in the 1970's

摘要

Significant improvement in some phases of operational forecasting over the past several years is demonstrated and is attributed to the transition from a totally manual to a 'man-machine-mix' operation. This is used as the departure point in discussing expected changes in current forecasting practice over the next several years. The 'man-machine mix' has been replaced by a machine product only if the quality of this end product is comparable or better than the 'man-machine-mix' product. The number of machine-produced products which are directly suitable for users is rather limited, and it is difficult to see how this number will increase significantly in the next several years. Therefore, the conclusion is reached that while most centrally prepared forecast guidance for field forecasters may soon be a purely machine product, man will provide an important input into improved weather services in the preparation of short-period general public forecasts, specialized user forecasts, and warnings. This conclusion is discussed in light of recent atmospheric predictability studies and the lack of success to date of machine aviation terminal forecasting. (Author)