Preliminary Results of an Empirical Study of Some Spectral Characteristics of Skill in Present Weather and Circulation Forecasts

摘要

The paper establishes some of the spectral characteristics of the errors in present-day weather and circulation forecasts. The results appear to confirm in general the hypothetical relationship between scale and predictability, although there are definite anomalies which appear to result from the basic physical processes which control the phenomena. In particular it should be noted that Weather Bureau public precipitation probability forecasts exhibit a considerable degree of skill in the short scale. Temperature forecasts, however, behave very much like the relationships which have been hypothesized in recent theoretical treatments of the predictability question. (Author)