An Objective Method for Forecasting Winds over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario

摘要

An objective method for forecasting surface winds over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario is presented. The developmental data consisted of 1000-mb geostrophic wind and sea-level pressure forecasts from the Subsynoptic Advection Model for eight United States cities near the two lakes, as well as marine observations made by anemometer-equipped vessels during the 1968 boating season. Two sets of regression equations for forecasting wind speed were derived by applying screening regression. The first yields wind speed by vectorial addition of two directional components; the second yields wind speed directly. Comparison further verifies that wind speed forecasts made by combining components are negatively biased. The resulting operational program is described, and plans for future development are discussed. (Author)